Lithium Batteries: Nothing But Illusion
My following article is an analysis designed to provide a warning for those eager to invest in lithium for a long time!
As I wrote before, I will do this again and invest in lithium mining, refining and battery development (for personal passenger vehicles) basically just a timing game based on a \"announcement\" that promotes government and industry trends to gain public recognition of speculation with some or other people\'s money.
Low buy, high sell after someone announces \"investment\" after development or delivery time goes backwards (Warren Buffett, for example ), or after announcing that the US government will subsidize a technology or a factory.
Of course, I recognize that some announcements are aimed at specific battery developers, while others are more general.
I refer to these \"tips\" and \"trends\" as \"tips\" so that they conform to the recommended categories we get on TV, newsletters, and mainstream media every day.
If you are still by my side, I urge you to read the article first and then the short, concise, wonderful, Hyperlink article by John L.
Entitled \"Time for natural gas --Pair of guzzler
Mode Electric vehicle conversion \", John tells you why, economically, you should support the use of (drums) to convert gasoline-powered vehicles (such as pickup trucks) to new leads for dual-mode hybrid vehicles
Carbon-based batteries manufactured by Axion Power International (OTC: AXPW. John L.
To fully disclose here, Peterson is a former director of Axion, a securities lawyer for the company.
I mention this because John knows a lot more about alternative energy than Buffett does.
Don\'t say I didn\'t tell you this.
I do not own any shares of Axion, any other battery developer or manufacturer, any lithium producer or end user.
Why did I start writing an article on the fundamentals of the global market for lithium, the scale of the lithium-containing salt mine in Bolivia, famous with a phrase that is not a geologists but probably the most influential philosopher ever written in English, Scottish genius David Hume?
Please bear with me for a second, be vigilant, and at the same time I ask you to read the full quotation of Hume\'s iconic \"survey on human understanding, the phrase quoted in the title above is that it appears from that citation in the way that let\'s talk, not a book about divinity or school. But the primary mining promotion of a large number of grandiose.
A hot topic recently discussed by investors in speculative primary mining is that there may not be enough lithium resources and reserves to satisfy (near?
) The future of lithium that makes rechargeable batteries that are being touted (literally-
Find the meaning of words) as a solution that assumes a need to reduce, perhaps, even in order to eliminate CO2 emissions from the operation of privately owned vehicles, these vehicles are intended to deliver a limited number of passengers [usually 4 passenger \"cars\"] and a limited number of freight charges [pickup and off-road vehicles ].
Today, more than 0. 7 billion vehicles of this size are operating around the world, of which more than 2/3 are in North America, Western Europe and Japan.
The source of such man-made carbon dioxide emissions is collectively referred to as the \"transport\" issue in the debate on so-
Known as global warming
The proposed solution to the transport emissions issue is the replacement of internal combustion engines, ice, combustion of hydrocarbon fuels, which today account for 99% of the vehicles mentioned above, first of all, powered by rechargeable batteries, RSB, electric motors and ICE, both of which are able to drive the car directly, such as Toyota (NYSE: TM) Prius and then drive with a plug
In a hybrid car, it only uses an electric motor powered by RSB, but there may be on-board ice to keep the battery charged before the vehicle reaches the charging point, such as the Chevrolet Volt\'s proposal, finally, replace the two power trains with a battery-powered vehicle with an RSB with sufficient storage capacity and power output in order to provide the vehicle with the same amount of passenger capacity and passenger capacity.
Now, mainstream media, gay men, politicians, and investment promoters have decided that a lithium-
The ion-based RSB has sufficient power and capacity to give certainty to the above-mentioned solutions to transport emission problems.
I would like to point out at this point that there is little or no evidence of quantity or quantity, and there is no replicable experimental reasoning about facts and existence to support the conclusion of men who have sex with men. Olivia Newton-
John\'s hit song when I was young was \"Let\'s start healthy\".
\"My lyrics will be\" let\'s get the numbers \"because David Hume sets the numbers in order for us to understand the possibilities of the problem and the proposed solution.
On August 2007, I attended a meeting between GM battery development Operations Group and SQM, chile salt water lithium producer, at GM (NYSE: GM.
At that time, SQM was the world\'s largest producer of lithium.
GM was and is not the largest automaker in the world.
At that meeting, the technical managers of the two companies agreed that, as far as I recall, 1 kg of lithium was calculated to be the equivalent of the metal weight of lithium, in general, the battery storage capacity per kWh is correct for the production of RSBs for vehicle electrified.
So it\'s clear that the Chevrolet Volt\'s battery pack, extended range, plug
In the hybrid, it has been announced that lithium-at 16 KW-
The ion technology RSB will require 16 kg lithium to be manufactured.
The US Geological Survey, the US Geological Survey, the latest version of its lithium mineral commodity summary ,(.
Pdf format) (January 31, 2009) said that in 2008, 27,400 metric tons of lithium batteries, calculated lithium metal, were produced worldwide.
S. Geological Survey says the demand for battery producers is 25%.
It is reported that the production of lithium is usually not lithium metal, but lithium carbonate, only 1/6 of lithium.
For example, SQM reports that it will have a lithium carbonate capacity of 42,000 metric tons per year by 2008;
This means that, according to the calculation of lithium metal, the capacity of SQM will reach 7,000 metric tons per year.
Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that lithium production in 2008 accounted for more than 25% of the world\'s total output.
2007 Annual lithium mineral Yearbook of the US Geological Survey
Pdf released in August 2008) discussed in detail the company currently producing lithium and its future plans as well as current and future capacity.
However, none of the two USGS publications cited mentioned mining development in Bolivia.
Reference was made to Bolivia\'s reserves, a term for the estimated quantity in mining geology, which is considered to exist due to professional surveys and comparisons with other known deposits of similar types.
Although Bolivia\'s lithium production is so low or non-existent that nine months ago the US Geological Survey did not notice or even discuss it, and the promoters of the investment have sown enough of their own \"information \", let Thompson Reuters publish an \"analysis\" called \"Bolivia is the key to lithium\" on April 14, 2009, if you go to Google news and enter \"Bolivia and lithium \", you will get this story and a bunch of similar derivative stories.
Alas, they have all overlooked a remarkable fact that I am going to tell you now and explain why this fact excludes all stories.
A geologists friend of mine who has worked in South America for nearly 50 years pointed out to me yesterday that he was shocked by the fact that none of the recent analysis articles mentioned, such as an article by Reuters, in his precise terms, the deposits in Bolivia are \"bad \".
\"He told me that I could, like anyone else, find this in a study jointly conducted by the US Geological Survey and the Bolivia geological service through careful analysis.
Pergamon Press released the following data on the Uyuni desert in Bolivia on 1978!
Other data are from industry consultants and can be found from the USGS website linked above.
He built the following table for me: the deposits above are all unfriendly alkaline-
That\'s not to mention ~
There are deserts in Chile (Atacama), Argentina (hombre muerto) and Bolivia (Uyuni.
All of these are lithium-containing saline, which appear under the surface as a huge salt \"apartment\", which is a highly concentrated liquid, brine.
The way to deal with this salt water is to create huge ponds that can naturally evaporate by solar energy (I. e.
Sunshine) as desiccant.
SQM told me that this step will take 18 months for their Atacama work!
Moving the slush mountain through a drying kiln that needs to be powered by huge fossil fuel burning or nuclear power plants is not practical and will never be.
The cost of building such facilities in remote deserts and even solar thermal facilities to concentrate solar heat will be so expensive that it will destroy the economy of any battery project.
Please note that the lithium production industry in Chile and Argentina has been successful since the study in 1978, but Bolivia has not been successful!
Everyone also needs to know that all of the South American saline deposits that are working or are being studied because lithium is mainly potash deposits of lithium as a by-product
Products with low overall value.
The SQM potash fertilizer with the highest lithium content (Atacama) showed that 11% of the income came from lithium.
This is the gospel of today, and even if the value of lithium drops, SQM will produce potash.
The question for Bolivia is: Is the uyouni deposit an independent producer of lithium, or does Bolivia first have to develop a major potash industry?
Investors and analysts are not interested in these details, but we all know that these details are the devil!
In conclusion, my conclusion is that the production of lithium from brines has been a major source of lithium production since 1994, and in South America, the chemical reactions of the British are critical to their economic practice.
As my colleague from South American geologists also pointed out to me: he also said that it is economics dear readers who decide whether \"deposits\" can be mined, economics is calculated by summarizing all costs and dividing the total production tonnage (and also quantitative terms ).
For Bolivia\'s high magnesium brines, there is currently no practical way to remove enough magnesium, even on a large scale basis, so it will not \"poison\" the production of lithium, because lithium contains so much magnesium, it is ineffective as a battery electrode.
Therefore, when manufacturing a battery, it may be very expensive for this material to be processed into a \"battery level\" and therefore useless.
As a result, Bolivia currently does not produce useful lithium from its British people.
I acknowledge that the Reuters reporter was aware of some of the issues because in April 15, 2009 he wrote a follow-up report that Bolivian politics could hinder the future of the global supply of lithium, it appears on the IBT (International Business Times) website.
Back to the numbers: Let\'s assume that the amount of lithium 1 kg per kilowatt hour battery capacity I said above is correct: this means that for the Chevrolet Volt, the extended range plug
In a hybrid, 16 kg of lithium metal is required to make a battery.
Bob Lutz, a famous General Motors Company, said the battery would last 150,000 miles or 10 years.
This means that even if lithium is recycled, it will take 10 years to get back to the supply pool, so until 10 years after mass production of car batteries, any meaningful increase in the supply of recycled lithium will not occur.
In view of this, such as the battery economy of lithium that M2 told GM that they could not recover in August 20 and the refusal to participate in such enterprises at that time, they did not have such a processing facility and they have calculated that, in any case, the new production will be much cheaper than recycling lithium as a source.
I point out that society may need a closed loop recycling system for lithium
The increased costs will be borne by the society through taxes and subsidies.
I also mentioned at that meeting that my understanding of GM and the US rules is that both the company and the government have authorized the establishment of a cradle-to-grave system for managing waste from scrap operations, and therefore, someone has to design a verifiable recycling system for lithium
Even if their destination is land filling, so is the ion battery.
GM and SQM both ignored me at this point.
Please note that SQM, the world\'s largest producer of brine lithium, has just completed a five-year expansion plan to bring its annual production to 42,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate.
Since 1994, the move to produce lithium from brine is because it is cheaper than producing lithium carbonate from mineral lithium pyroxene, the only process previously used.
Lithium pyroxene is a natural mineral that contains 3% % of lithium when it is pure lithium Al-Si and has been used for some time as an additive for the manufacture of light glass and ceramics.
The miners of the world\'s largest lithium pyroxene deposit are Talison in Australia, and Talison\'s biggest customer is China. China has both lithium pyroxene and lithium pyroxene, but domestic production is not enough to meet domestic demand.
Please note that the world total reserves determined by the US Geological Survey are a combination of salt water deposits and lithium pyroxene deposits, if you withdraw Bolivia\'s \"reserves\" from the US Geological Survey (USGS \", the world\'s resources will be reduced by nearly half!
Now let\'s look at the possible limitations of lithium production.
Ion battery pack for cars: assuming that 2009 of lithium production will be the same as 2008 of production, that is, about 27,000 metric tons, 25% of which, as the US Geological Survey said, is used for battery production, all lithium used for battery production is for personal electronics, and according to USGS, the use of laptops and power tools is increasing, and it is also increasing dramatically in the case of power tools, then we must also note that since the other 75% of the lithium produced is used for existing uses, such as the production of glass and ceramics, as the demand for lithium in these fields is also increasing, so new lithium production will be needed for car batteries.
For the purposes of the debate, let\'s assume that global lithium production may quadruple over the next 10 years.
There is no evidence that this is in progress or planned, but let\'s assume it will happen anyway.
Let\'s further assume that lithium is generated every additional point-
Ion batteries for cars.
This will provide us with 75,000 metric tons of lithium, calculated by lithium metal, which will be used annually to manufacture automotive batteries by 2020.
75,000 metric tons is 75,000,000 kg.
This means that the global automotive industry will have 75,000,000/15 = 5,000,000 lithium resources in 2020.
Hybrid Chevrolet Volt plug
In the hybrid type, the charging range is 40 miles and the maximum speed is definitely below 70 miles per hour
Please note that this means that the car can run back and forth at speed before charging for 36 minutes!
Large cars with higher speeds and longer ranges will require larger batteries, so the construction of such vehicles will significantly reduce the total number of lithium
Ion batteries using various types of electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, extended range plugs
Hybrid cars and real battery-powered cars can be built in 2020.
When the battery is recycled, in 10 years, the recycled lithium will be able to add only 5,000,000 cars a year in global buildings.
It is possible to draw charts and do calculations, but the bottom line is that, in addition to the above assumptions, we have to add that the consensus of those who predict the production of individual vehicles is that, the global production of these vehicles will reach 100 million per year by 2015, and may reach 0. 15 billion per year by 2020, with China and India accounting for 30 million to 20% per year, in total.
According to the data, the production of lithium
The ion battery pack for vehicle propulsion is now and in the future limited by lithium production, because even if all recoverable lithium deposits are exhausted, enough lithium can only be produced each year, balance between mining and recycling with a recovery rate of 450,000,000 to build 100% cars.
Today, the number of cars in the world has reached 750,000,000, nearly half of them in North America and more than 90% in North America, Europe and Japan.
I have written elsewhere the fact that the maximum output of rare earth required for the manufacture of nickel metal hydrogen batteries, electric motors and permanent magnet generators is limited, at this time, almost entirely confined to China.
It cannot be ignored that the motors in many electric vehicles that intend to use permanent magnet electric drive motors depend on their maximum efficiency for nd-iron-
Boron magnets, so that even electric cars using lithium
Due to the supply of rare earth, the total output of ion batteries will be limited.
These figures suggest that for the next generation, at least 25 years, the total amount of possible annual production of electrified individual vehicles will be limited by the speed of natural resource production, especially rare earth and lithium.
The highest possible output is likely to be less than 10 million vehicles per year in 2030 Chevrolet Volt reasonably powered cars.
After that, it is likely to be found that we end up draining the recoverable resources of the key metals needed for car electrified, so recycling or limited availability is mandatory.
I did not take into account the impact of rare earth and lithium on potential price increases in the next generation, as relatively high grade deposits have been developed, and because of the cost, the cost increases the work performance is lower
This is important because sales data for Toyota Prius and Honda (NYSE: HMC) Insight hybrids have just shown that prices are the most important factor under economic pressure, not novelty or greenness.
I want to end this article with a positive attitude.
USGS commodity minerals survey of lead in 2008 (.
Pdf) shows that the United States, Canada, and Australia have 50% of the world\'s known lead reserves, and more than 90% of us lead usage today has come from recycled cars and traction batteries!
So even if we include (useless) Bolivia\'s lithium reserves in our calculations, the lithium reserves in the US, Canada and Australia alone are six times the world\'s lithium reserves.
This means that if we use lead, the electricity of individual vehicles can be carried out faster
Carbon batteries, such as carbon batteries designed by Axion Co. , Ltd.
Make electric cars of all types
By giving up some high performance features and some range while still getting more performance than the Chevrolet Volt and leveraging our existing recycling and battery manufacturing facilities, expand their American fleet as needed to power up immediately.
In fact, we need to replace and recycle the battery every 3 times.
4 years, not 10 years of myth that is considered lithium
Ion batteries that have never reached anything close to this number are certainly an easy deal to make cheaper, more reliable and safer lead
There are also no carbon batteries with serious material shortages.
The ideal future of electric vehicles is leading.
Carbon Batteries for short-distance city cars, nickel-metal hydrogen batteries for long-distance medium performance, and lithium-
Ion battery for high performance remote.
Prices will set the car apart and determine their market segments, but most importantly, we may have enough available resources to do so.