the future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates
Carbon Power Systems balance supply and demand that is not flexible or intermittent.
Cost forecasting is important to understand this role, but data is scarce and uncertain.
Here we build an empirical curve for 11 power storage technologies to predict future prices.
We found that, regardless of technology, capital costs are all in the direction of achieving the installation of the fixed system of US $340 ± 60 kWh −1 and the capacity of the battery pack after US $175 ± 25 kWh −1 kWh TWh is installed every technology. Bottom-
The evaluation of materials and production costs indicates that this price range is not feasible.
Any technology to reach 1 ttwh deployment requires a cumulative investment of $175-$51 billion, which can be achieved in 2040-2027 according to market growth forecasts.
Finally, we explore how the derivative rate of future cost reduction affects when storage becomes economically competitive in transport and residential applications.
So our experience
Curve data sets remove barriers to further research by industry, decision makers and scholars.